Step 1: Intensive reading.
Try to answer the question below while you’re reading:
Question: What was the ‘future’ electronic development that Leon Bagrit wasn't able
to foresee?
Vocabulary:
notoriously adv. （尤指因坏事）众所周知地
mainframe n. 主机，中央处理机
full-time adj. 专职的
technician n. 技师
software n. 软件
IBM（美国）国际商用机器公司（International Business Machines）
DOS 磁盘操作系统（Disk Operating System）
Microsoft n. （美国）微软公司
user-friendly adj. 容易操作的，好用的
multimedia adj. 多媒体的
alternative adj. 选择的
diagnose v. 诊断
relieve v.减轻
accountant n. 会计
repetitive adj. 重复的
clerical adj. 办公室工作的
Internet n. 国际交互网
network n. 网络
Passage:
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid
1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as
common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common
enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations.
These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large
indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time
technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still
exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal
computers, commonly known as PCs.
众所周知，预测未来是非常困难的。举个例子吧，在 20 世纪 70 年代中叶又有谁
能想像得到在 20 世纪末的时候，家庭用的计算机会像电视机一样普遍？在 70
年代，计算机已经相当普及了，但只用在大的公司、政府部门和大的组织之中，
它们被称为主机。计算机主机确实很大，常常占据了装有空调的多间房间，雇用
专职的技师，而且得用专门编写的软件才能运行。虽然这种大计算机仍然存在，
但是它们的许多功能已被体积小但功能齐全的个人电脑——即我们常说的 PC 机
——所代替了。
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can
properly be described as the first ‘home computer’ and it pointed the way to the future.
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early
1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This
ran on an ‘operating system’ called DOS, produced by a then small company named
Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble
beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and
multimedia machines which are in common use today.
1975 年，美国推出了一台被称为“牛郎星” 的原始机型。严格地说起来，它可以
被称为第一台“家用电脑” ，而且它也指出了今后的方向。70 年代末，在牛郎星
之后又出现了一种被称为“苹果” 的机型。80 年代初，计算机行业的王牌公司美
国国际商用机器公司（IBM）生产出了世界上第一台个人电脑。这种电脑采用了
一种被称为磁盘操作系统（DOS）的工作程序，而这种程序是由当时规模不大的
微软公司生产的。IBM 的个人电脑被大规模地模仿。从那些简陋的初级阶段，
我们看到了现在都已普及的、使用简便的家用电脑和多媒体的微机的发展。
Notes:
1 in the mid 1970s，在 20 世纪 70 年代中叶。
2 so-called，号称，所谓的。
3 Mainframe computers were very large indeed …software. 在这句话中，现在分词
短语occupying 和employing 以及过去分词短语run 均作主语mainframe computers
的修饰成分。
4 take over，接收，接管。
5 home computer，家用电脑。
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as
long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the
uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers
would learn to ‘think’ for themselves and would ‘rule the world’, which people liked
to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small
enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information
about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in
hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office
workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses
have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen
the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to
communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers
linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the
Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen
in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller
and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes
Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were
alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
想一想这些发展的时间多么短，就更觉得英国人莱昂·巴格瑞特有着非凡的能力。
他在 60 年代就能预言我们今天知道的计算机的一些用途。巴格瑞特根本不接受
计算机可以学会自己去“思考”和计算机可以“统治世界”这种想法，而这种想法是
当时的人们都愿意相信的。巴格瑞特预示有一天计算机可以小到拿在手上，计算
机可以提供有关交通阻塞的信息，并建议可供选择的其他路线，计算机在医院里
可以帮助医生诊断病情，计算机可以使办公室人员和会计免除那些枯燥、重复的
劳动。计算机的所有这些功能现在都变得很平常。当然了，莱昂 · 巴格瑞特根本
没有可能预测到国际交互网——就是把计算机连结到电话线路上，以便和世界上
任何一个地方的人立即进行联系的一个世界范围的通讯系统——的发展。他也无
法预测到我们可以利用国际交互网获取有关任何已知专题的信息，以便在家里的
屏幕上阅读，如果愿意的话甚至可以将其打印出来。计算机已经变得体积越来越
小、功能越来越多、价格越来越低，这就是莱昂 · 巴格瑞特的预测非凡的地方。
如果他或是像他的什么人今天还活着的话，他大概可以告诉我们下一个 50 年后
会发生什么事情。
Notes:
6 a then small company，那时候规模尚小的一个公司。
7 dismiss the idea that…，不考虑……这个想法。
8 the Internet, the worldwide system that… ，后面的这个短语用来进一步说明名词
the Internet，是它的同位语，这种用法在科技类的文章中很常见。
51.2【阅读理解】Predicting the future
Step 2: Comprehension questions.
1 Is predicting the future notoriously difficult? (Yes, it is.)
2 Could anyone have imagined that computers would be common in people's homes
by the end of the 20th century? (No, they couldn't.)
3 When were computers reasonably common? (In the 1970s.)
4 But where were they common? (In big business, government departments and large
organizations.)
5 What were these big computers called? (Mainframe computers.)
6 Were full-time technicians employed to run them? (Yes, they were.)
7 When was the Altair PC launched in the USA? (In 1975.)
8 How could it properly be described? (As the first ‘home computer’)
9 What was it followed by at the end of the 1970s? (A machine called the Apple.)
10 What operating system did IBM's first PC run on? (DOS.)
11 When did Leon Bagrit make his predictions about the uses of computers? (In the
1960s.)
12 Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to think for themselves,
didn't he? (Yes, he did.)
13 Did he foresee a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand?
(Yes, he did.)
14 What kind of work did he think computers would be able to take over for office
workers and accountants? (Dull, repetitive clerical work.)
15 Could he have foreseen the development of the Internet? (No, he couldn't.)
16 How rapidly can we communicate with anyone worldwide on the Internet?
(Instantly.)
17 What else can we use the Internet for? (To obtain information about every known
subject.)
51.3【拓展写作】Predicting the future
Step 3: Composition
Write a composition in about 300 words on the following topic:
• Predict the next 20 years in computer development.
Key to composition
Plan and ideas for composition (a)
Tile: Computers in 20 years’ time
Introduction: Predicting what computers will be like—guessing game
Development: Development so fast — computers already smaller, more powerful,
cheaper than ever—in 20 years, what? Let's speculate.
1 Everyday shopping by computer—virtual-reality shopping
2 Education — computer-notebooks
3 Travel—computer-driven aircraft, cars, lorries, etc.
4 Medicine and health — brain surgery—computer-operated limbs
Conclusion: Who knows? — wait and see
Composition
Predicting what computers will be like in 20 years’ time or what they will be able
to do is a guessing game. If Leon Bagrit could not predict everything, what chance
have I got? However, because the prediction is just a calculated guess, I will try!
The development of the computer since the 1960s has been very fast. From large
mainframe computers which filled whole rooms to small lap-top computers which
you can carry in a shoulder bag or large handbag, it has taken only forty years.
Computers are already smaller, more powerful and cheaper than they have ever been.
So what might happen in the next twenty years? Let's speculate.
In twenty years' time it's possible that many people will be doing their everyday
shopping by computer. The virtual-reality' shop will be available through your TV set.
You will be able to ‘walk through’ your supermarket on screen, click or tick what you
want, and then order it — and it will be delivered. In education, most students could
be using computer-notebooks which make notes for them as they listen to a lecture or
watch a demonstration experiment. In the world of travel, aircraft already have
computer systems that will control auto-pilot. In twenty years’ time, computers could
actually pilot aircraft—with no need for a real, live human pilot at all.
Computers already help doctors diagnose disease and other health problems, and
help in the control of body systems during operations. What else might they do in the
future? They might actually control certain kinds of surgery (brain surgery, for
example) where the human hand cannot always keep still enough, and power
computer-operated limbs.
So there are some ideas. But who knows what might really happen? No one. No
one can see into the future. We shall just have to wait and see.
(307 words)
课外练习：
1 In the mid 1970s, computers were .
(a) notoriously unreliable
(b) rather rare
(c) in widespread use
(d) not at all common
2 The importance of the Altair was that it .
(a) did not need specially-written software to run it
(b) put computing power within the reach of ordinary people
(c) helped to establish Microsoft DOS as the standard system
(d) was widely copied by IBM and other big manufacturers
3 Leon Bagrit foresaw that before long, .
(a) we would be able to teach computers to think like human beings
(b) computers would bring about the development of the Internet
(c) computers in hospitals would diagnose illnesses and prescribe treatments
(d) computers in commerce would take over many repetitive tasks
4 Leon Bagrit’s most important insight into the future development of computers was
in terms of their .
(a) ability to relieve people of boring tasks
(b) size, power and cost
(c) use in traffic management
(d) commonplace use in offices and hospitals
5 It is notoriously difficult the future.
(a) when predicting
(b) the prediction of
(c) to predict
(d) that we predict bread son
6 Who could have imagined that as many computers as TV sets?
(a) there would be
(b) there to be
(c) their being
(d) there were
7 People in those days liked to believe in computers the world.
(a) taking over and ruling
(b) that took over and ruled
(c) take over and rule
(d) to take over and rule
8 Bagrit’s predictions so remarkable is their accuracy.
(a) What makes
(b) Why are
(c) How many are
(d) They make
9 Bagrit the idea that computers would rule the world.
(a) refuted
(b) refused
(c) rejected
(d) discharged
10 Bagrit foresaw that computers would become small to hold in the hand.
(a) adequately,
(b) sufficiently
(c) capably
(d) possibly
11 All these computer uses have become .
(a) relatively normal
(b) more or less frequent
(c) taken for granted
(d) unexceptionable
12 The Internet enables us to instantly with anyone in any part of the
world.
(a) get in touch
(b) contact
(c) send a message
(d) convey an idea
答案：1c 2b 3d 4b 5c 6a 7a 8a 9a 10b 11a 12a