Although the global financial crisis following a housing bubble occurred between 2007 and 2010, it’s still scary and unforgettable to many of us today. Chances are that the next financial crisis will focus on cities because we may soon see the end of urbanization. Many may consider this an exaggeration – after all, cities provide numerous benefits to people. This is true, but new technologies nowadays are making urbanization unnecessary, so it’s time for deurbanization.
It makes sense that proximity, or closeness, brought about by urbanization or centralization, lets you reduce commuting time and expenses. The more people live close together, the larger your sales market is. Cities also offer job and education opportunities as factories, schools, and service providers are within easy reach. In addition, proximity allows the cost of infrastructures, such as roads, sewers, and electricity lines, to be shared. As a result, cities become magnets for wealth, money, services, opportunities, and people.
Doesn’t that mean we will continue to live in cities? I think not, because of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a number of fields. Among these are robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles and others, which are leading to profound changes in the entire systems of production and management of our society.
These new technologies will, in one way or another, reduce the benefits of cities. The need for proximity will decline with new technologies, whether it’s remote working, online dating, or online shopping. Though the home-delivery market for food and merchandise is in the midst of a boom, new technologies do not need roads, just transportation, whether by plane or flying car.
In fact, decentralization in the supply systems of daily necessities is on the horizon. For instance, many people receive drinking water from the tap, while decentralized alternatives can now harvest water from the air and create clean water in substantial quantities. Decentralized sewer systems can also take care of waste water. We can also generate electricity with solar panels, wind turbines, and living plants to charge our tablet, bake a cake, warm our house, and fuel our car.
Back in the late 1990s, even many eminent people were vague about digital technology. They underestimated its massive impact, thinking mobile phones were an unrealistic idea and going wireless with the Internet of Things seemed to be the distant future. They never imagined what it would be like today. Smartphones are now unquestionably popularized. With 4G and 5G being used, virtual proximity will reach a whole new level beyond what is possible with our current apps.
Furthermore, automation and robotization will undoubtedly have significant implications for both blue-collar and white-collar work, with about half of the jobs giving way to computerization. New jobs will inevitably be created by technology – yet the types of jobs will be different and the number can be rather small compared to that of the jobs lost. This will erode many people’s confidence in landing jobs in cities. So contemplating your future career prospects is a must now.
Removing the advantages of city-living leaves only its disadvantages, such as the hectic pace of life, constraints on household or rent expenditure, and little available space for personal recreation. If you are in a financially vulnerable state, or worry about living on the fringe of society, you may feel compelled to work harder and change your status quo. Without a clear way out – the way to live better – this mental state can cause anguish and distress, a breeding ground for bigger problems.
But the problems don’t end there. Cities can form urban heat islands. Simply put, this means urban areas become much warmer and more humid than their rural surroundings. Dark surfaces absorb sunlight more effectively, and the thermal properties of concrete and steel indicate they contain far more heat than plants. Plants cool their surroundings through evapotranspiration; concrete and steel are unable to do this. Consequently, heat islands can significantly decrease air and water quality, which is catastrophic since it brings diseases, ailments, and allergies.
Another phenomenon that is associated with the decreasing desirability of cities is that not every city is growing. The departure of large employers from an area, unable to keep their business afloat, can put cities in an economic dilemma. This starts a vicious circle involving falling housing demand and prices, a lack of money to maintain properties, and declining tax incomes, possibly provoking a new financial crisis. With automation and artificial intelligence leading to large job reductions in many industries, we may expect to see more shrinking cities.
Given the many downsides of cities, why should we still move into cities when their leverage and vigor are diminishing? Why should we pay a lot of money to live in close quarters with other people and not reap the benefits? It seems irrational to continue moving into cities when things are becoming decentralized. Yet, it seems that almost everybody in the world assumes urbanization will remain and continue. Have they ever thought about the cumulative effects of urbanization?
Deurbanization is imperative. While the advantages of a city may outweigh the disadvantages for some people, it’s no longer the case for everyone. Even if some jobs wouldn’t be affected by shifts in technology, there is still the fact of shrinking cities to consider. We have moved toward cities because they’re where the opportunities used to be, but we can deduce that the prospects of the future will be somewhere else. Therefore, let’s bid farewell to the heartland of major cities and embrace the trend of deurbanization!